Thursday, February 10, 2011

Ok, let's take a look at SEC basketball

First of all, as we sit here at just about the half way point of the SEC season you have to start thinking about just how many spots will the SEC get in the NCAA tourney. The way we are playing right now, I think we head to the NIT but if you really look at it, you might have to put our odds more at 50-50 as of now. Considering the field is now 68, considering just how poor the ACC is this year, how average the middle of the Big10 is right now, Big12, Pac10 etc, it is not a stretch to think the SEC can and will get 5 teams in the dance. So now let's take a look at the SEC standings as they are right now-

East SEC  Overall   West   SEC Overall
UF  8-2    19-5        Bama 7-1   15-7
UK 5-4    17-6        MSU  5-4  13-10
UG 5-4    16-7        Miss   4-5  16-8
UT 5-4    15-9        Ark    4-6  14-9
VU 4-4    16-6        LSU   2-7  10-14
SC 4-5    13-9        AU     1-8   8-15

RPI index, UK 12, UF 13, Vandy 21, Tenn 26, UGA 44, Miss 57-that is all from the SEC in the top 68. So with all that said, you have to figure UF, UK and Vandy will make it just based on overall record and RPI-well, UF looks good everywhere, UK so so when it comes to conference but hey, they are UK so they are in right now. Bama leads the west by a large margin but RPI for them is not good, not sure their exact number but obviously not in the top 68. We should get the nod over Miss at this point certainly based on our head to head at their place. UT also should make it based on RPI and SOS as well, that win against Pitt is HUGE for them. So, what I am trying to say is this, to me our enemies right now are Bama and Vandy and we play both schools down the stretch, Vandy at home and Bama on the road. Those will be huge games for us, especially Vandy at home.

Looking at schedules down the stretch, Vandy plays host to Bama tonight-good for us as one will get another loss. Vandy also still plays us in Athens, has two games left with Kentucky, home game vs Tenn, home game vs. UF. Road games at AU, LSU, and Kentucky. Vandy certainly has an easier schedule than we do, which makes our game vs. them huge for us. Let's assume they lose to us and UK, that gives them 6 conference losses, let's hope that UF and maybe UK can beat them in Nashville OR somehow AU or LSU upsets them at home. I would suspect they SHOULD finish around 9-7 to 8-8 in conference if I were to guess. Let's hope 8-8.

As for Bama, considering they are in the west, they should be able to cruise to a division title at this point, as they have 3 game lead. They have a cake schedule the rest of the way to be honest but that schedule is NOT going to help them with their RPI either. They still have the game at Vandy, they host us of course, and also play at UF and Ole Miss, they have a game at LSU, homes games against Miss, AU and Arkansas. Let's assume they win at LSU, and all home games but us, that gives them 4 more wins for 19 wins and a 11-5 conference mark. If we can get to 9-7 in conference, that would give us 20 wins and should get us in ahead of Bama, although if we lose to them, that might tip the scales in Bama's favor.

If you want to look at UT, since they have the same conference record and already have 9 losses, they have a game at UF coming up Saturday but after that, they can really get on a roll with most games in Knoxville and Pearl is back on sidelines now. They host South Carolina, then us, then travel to Nashville, then host Miss State, then go to SCarolina before hosting UK. Honestly, unless we beat them up there or UK beats them up there, you have to figure they go at worst 9-7 which gets them in.

I think now you can see why those two home losses in conference could REALLY kill us. Now, we have picked up two road conference wins which could help us end up at 8-8, but we really need to get the win at SCarolina on Saturday before we play Vandy next week. We could be 7-4 heading into the back to back UT and UF games which is really where we need to be honestly. We should be able to get the win over LSU and SCarolina at home which would get us to 9 wins, steal either the UT, UF or Bama games and we get to 10-6 which really helps our chances of getting in-in fact I think 10-6 and we are guaranteed a spot. With the way we are playing at the moment though, NOTHING is guaranteed. Winning Saturday and then following that up with the win against Vandy could really do wonders for us folks and if that happens, we could still be in good shape for the dance. Thing is, we KNOW we can beat UT, UF and Vandy, we played all three close games, just got to get over the hump.


We have not heard a thing about possible candidates for our vacant LB or DE position-is that because the job has to be vacant for two weeks?? Seems strange that it has a week now and I have read NOTHING on who might be a candidate. I guess with it following national signing day, it kind of has been lost in the shuffle. I honestly don't know who they might consider but as I have said before, I suspect Grantham will have a lot of input on who ends up being hired. He was heavily involved in hiring Lakatos and Belin last year after he arrived and he is the coordinator. Sounds like Bobo was a big part of the hiring of Will Friend-per Friend Bobo made the first contact with him. This guy MUST be highly thought of (at least in the mind of Mike Bobo) for him to think of this guy immediately after Searels left the program.  Hopefully he will be a good hire, sometimes the guys you have not really heard much about end up being the best assistant coaches. We were all THRILLED when Searels was hired but I know personally, I was THRILLED when he left town as well. I also remember when Richt was hired and he hired Brian Van Gorder as his DC, we all were scratching our heads, he turned out to be pretty darn good.

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