EVERYONE expects LSU to beat us tomorrow. I mean, most think the game will be a laugher-the spread has gone up to 14 pts, it might be 16pts by kickoff. There have been some excellent posts on the UGA fan messsage board Dawgpost this week breaking down LSU. Rather than me take the time and effort to do the research, I will copy paste the information and of course give the author FULL credit-but the posts are so well done, I couldn't do anything nearly as well done. First is LSU pass defense stats, post made my jorge99, very good information here. Keep in mind that Mr. College football-the KING on 680, Chuck Oliver has stated how LSU has 6 NFL stars playing in their secondary so UGA will not have much luck throwing the football. Ok, so I will admit, LSU has great talent and we have some young pups catching passes but I do think we CAN have some success throwing against this team if we protect Murray-that is the key to our offensive gameplan.
LSU PASS DEFENSE
1) 240 yards passing by Oregon, average for the season is 220.
2) 463 yards passing by WVU, average for the season 351.
3) Morgan Newton was the quarterback when KY played LSU. Lost his job to Smith for the last part of the season after completing just 47% of his passes for the year.
4) Florida true freshman Brisset started his first college game at LSU, on the road, after Brantley was hurt.
5) Tennessee starter Bray hurt at the very end of the Georgia game. Sims started his first game of the year against LSU
6) Auburn QB Trotter benched after the Florida game. Moseley got his first career start against LSU, on the road.
7) McCarron of Bama was 16/28 for 200 yards passing against LSU. He has averaged 200 yds per game for the year.
8) Ole Miss suspended their starting qb Mackey against LSU. Most of the passing in that game was done by Brunetti, who only threw 3 passes all year prior to that game.
9) Arkansas qb Tyler Wilson was 14/22, for 207 yards, but was sacked 5 times by LSU.
Summary:
LSU's pass defense faced 4 quarterbacks making their first start of the year; Brissett, Mosley, Brunetti, Sims. Three of those had never started a game in college before the LSU game. Between all four, they had thrown 20 passes this season before they started against LSU. Those four teams went 37 for 79, with six interceptions against LSU.
edit: correction. Stoudt started the game for Ole Miss, played 2 possessions in the first quarter and then was replaced by Brunetti. Stoudt had 4 previous starts and had thrown for about 400 yards prior to the LSU game.
Among the other starting quarterbacks they've faced, Relf is a dual threat who has thrown for 1000 yds this season, has split time at MSU, Newton has thrown for 800 yds, 47%, lost his job at KY. WVU, Alabama, and Oregon had average or above passing yards vs LSU. Arkansas was held below their passing average.
The honey badger is 5'9" tall and I don't believe that he has the speed or the vertical leap of Brandon Boykin.
Several teams have been forced to run vs LSU because their passing games were compromised by novice quarterbacks. That has allowed LSU to tee off on the run game. If we can protect Murray, we should challenge their secondary early and often. Then, and maybe not until then, we can open some holes for Crowell and company.
2) 463 yards passing by WVU, average for the season 351.
3) Morgan Newton was the quarterback when KY played LSU. Lost his job to Smith for the last part of the season after completing just 47% of his passes for the year.
4) Florida true freshman Brisset started his first college game at LSU, on the road, after Brantley was hurt.
5) Tennessee starter Bray hurt at the very end of the Georgia game. Sims started his first game of the year against LSU
6) Auburn QB Trotter benched after the Florida game. Moseley got his first career start against LSU, on the road.
7) McCarron of Bama was 16/28 for 200 yards passing against LSU. He has averaged 200 yds per game for the year.
8) Ole Miss suspended their starting qb Mackey against LSU. Most of the passing in that game was done by Brunetti, who only threw 3 passes all year prior to that game.
9) Arkansas qb Tyler Wilson was 14/22, for 207 yards, but was sacked 5 times by LSU.
Summary:
LSU's pass defense faced 4 quarterbacks making their first start of the year; Brissett, Mosley, Brunetti, Sims. Three of those had never started a game in college before the LSU game. Between all four, they had thrown 20 passes this season before they started against LSU. Those four teams went 37 for 79, with six interceptions against LSU.
edit: correction. Stoudt started the game for Ole Miss, played 2 possessions in the first quarter and then was replaced by Brunetti. Stoudt had 4 previous starts and had thrown for about 400 yards prior to the LSU game.
Among the other starting quarterbacks they've faced, Relf is a dual threat who has thrown for 1000 yds this season, has split time at MSU, Newton has thrown for 800 yds, 47%, lost his job at KY. WVU, Alabama, and Oregon had average or above passing yards vs LSU. Arkansas was held below their passing average.
The honey badger is 5'9" tall and I don't believe that he has the speed or the vertical leap of Brandon Boykin.
Several teams have been forced to run vs LSU because their passing games were compromised by novice quarterbacks. That has allowed LSU to tee off on the run game. If we can protect Murray, we should challenge their secondary early and often. Then, and maybe not until then, we can open some holes for Crowell and company.
Here is a post about the LSU rushing D, very good job by UGAWildcat-
Here's a look at how they performed against the teams they faced this season compared to their averages. I'm including how we did against common opponents. Also, I left off the two cupcakes, because they don't matter. They don't tell us anything in either direction, really. I'm using net rushing yards for the teams. I'll post the team average, then their top rushers' numbers.
OREGON
Team Average: 291 yards per game. Against LSU: 95 yards.
LaMichael James 18 carries for 54 yards and 1 TD
De'Anthony Thomas 4 carries for 22 yards and 1 TD.
Thomas is a freshman and was also stripped in the game. It was his first collegiate game. The QB and Kenjon Barner also ran a little, but nothing significant. James has put up insane numbers against some pretty poor competition. In fact, he is the leading rusher in the country (yards per game) and only averages about 19.7 carries per game. So, it is pretty impressive that LSU shut him down right?
Actually he has been slowed significantly several times this year. he's listed at 5'9" and 185 lbs. he's probably a little smaller than that. he's a good back but... he's had these kinds of games:
LSU 18 carries for 54 yards. 3 yards per carry. #4 Rush D
Nevada 12 carries for 67 yards. 5.6 yards per carry (inflated by a long of 22) #57 Rush D
Washington State 13 carries for 53 yards. 4.1 yards per carry (long of 16) #63 Rush D
USC 20 carries for 78 yards (3.9 yards per carry) #19 Rush D
His numbers are inflated by these kinds of games:
Missouri State 12 carries for 204 #107 Rush D in D-IAA TEAM: 416
Arizona 23 for 288 #66 rush D TEAM: 415
Califonia 30 for 239 #38 rush D TEAM: 365
Washington 25 for 156 #54 rush D TEAM: 212
Stanford 20 for 146 #5 rush D (his best game probably) TEAM: 232
Oregon State 24 for 142 #101 rush D TEAM: 365
bearing in mind that the rush D stats are inflated in the pac-12 because they are pass-oriented teams.
So, LSU shut oregon down, but it only means so much. James has very impressive numbers but only 1 100 yard game vs a decent opponent (Stanford). Also, at that point in the season Barner wasn't a factor. He became a big part of their offense as the year went on. Oregon has put up pretty crazy rushing numbers over the course of the year but only faced one decent rush defense and then put up some insane numbers on some bad rush defenses. I'll call that a good but maybe not amazing performance by the LSU rush D. They're good, but the Oregon game doesn't tell us everything.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Team Average: 168.83 rushing yards per game. Against LSU: 52 Against UGA: 56
Vick Ballard Against LSU: 10 for 38 Against UGA: 8 for 23
Chris Relf Against LSU: 16 for 10 Against UGA: 15 for 31
So, LSU did a better job stopping Relf running than we did, but overall it's kind of a wash.
WEST VIRGINIA
Team Average: 138.00 yards per game Against LSU: 70 yards
Garrison: 10 for 46
Roberts: 5 for 9
Alston: 4 for 14
With Holgerson at West Virginia, they are an Air Raid team. They threw it 65 times for 463 yards. WOW
They were held for about 70 yards below their rushing average, but threw for more than 110 yards than they average. The rush d may have dictated that to some degree, but still. A good performance, but not amazing. WVU only ran it 22 times but they usually carry it a little over 31 times a game. decent chance that they thought their best chance was through the air and went with that.
KENTUCKY
Team Average: 124.17 yards per game Against LSU: 89 yards Against UGA: 23 yards
Newton: Against LSU: 9 for 33 Against UGA: DNP
Clemons: Against LSU: 21 for 69 Against UGA: DNP
Sanders: Against LSU: DNP Against UGA: 7 for 45
Williams: : Against LSU: DNP Against UGA: 8 for 11
Looks like we did much better than LSU, but it's a little tricky. Neither of the leading rushers from one game played in the other. Pretty weird. All that I can say about that is that CoShik Williams is the leading rusher for them this season and UGA shut him down completely. Advantage UGA, but it's weird.
FLORIDA
Team Average : 144.00 yards per game Against LSU: 113 Against UGA: -19
Rainey: Against LSU: 13 for 52 Against UGA: 5 for 26
Gillislee: Against LSU: 9 for 56 Against UGA: DNP
Demps: Against LSU: 2 for 0 Against UGA: 8 for 12
We didn't see Gillislee. I'm not sure why. I know that he was forced into action against LSU and Bama because Demps was hurt and I think Rainey was a little gimpy. Either way, big advantage to UGA. Worth noting that Brantley did not play in the LSU game and even without the sack yardage, UGA did much better against Florida's rushing offense than LSU did. And that Florida's rushing offense was far more healthy for us than for LSU. Oh, and, of course, that no Brantley meant that LSU didn't have to worry about Florida's passing game and could sell out on the run. Didn't seem to matter much. They played well. We played a good bit better.
TENNESSEE
Team Average: 90.08 yards per game (ouch!) Against LSU: 111 Against UGA: -21!!!
Poole: Against LSU: 19 for 70 Against UGA: 7 for 7
Lane: Against LSU: 6 for 43 Against UGA: 7 for 11
once again... UT was without their starting QB. and in fact attempted twice as many passes against us. LSU could sell out to stop the run because sims couldn't beat them passing. they only threw it 20 times. yet, they still ran much better against LSU, even without sack yardage (though i'm not adjusting for that for either team). Big advantage UGA in this game.
AUBURN
Team Average: 174.75 yards per game. Against LSU: 87 yards Against UGA: 51 yards
Dyer: Against LSU: 12 for 60 Against UGA: 13 for 48
McCalebb: Against LSU: 3 for 32 Against UGA: 5 for 30
even more impressive is that LSU sacked moseley for -44 and we sacked him for -28. moseley was starting his first game against LSU. again, they could sell out to stop the run and they sacked the young QB several times. advantage UGA again
OLE MISS
Team Average: 129.58 yards per game Against LSU: 148 yards Against UGA: 34 yards
Davis: Against LSU: 11 for 41 Against UGA: DNP
Bolden: Against LSU: 13 for 58 Against UGA: 5 for 2
Brunetti: Against LSU: 15 for 74 Against UGA: DNP
Brassell: Against LSU: 1 for -11 Against UGA: 1 for 14
Scott: Against LSU: DNP Against UGA: 8 for 34
This game came late in the season for Ole Miss, so they were missing some guys, including a few that were suspended for the LSU game. Yet, they managed to rush for more than their average against the Tigers. That surprised me. Big advantage to UGA. We saw a more intact team and allowed fewer rushing yards.
ARKANSAS
Team Average: 138.08 yards per game Against LSU: 47 yards
Johnson: 10 for 31
Green: 5 for 23
Wingo: 4 for 16
Wilson was sacked like 5 times and that really hurt their numbers against LSU, but the tigers admirably held arkansas well below their average. No way to compare this to UGA since we didn't play Arkansas, but it's worth noting that Johnson has 1 100 yards game: 160 on ole miss. Wingo has 1. 109 against troy. green only played in about half of arkansas's games and has a season high of 47. this is a pass-first team and LSU feasted on their one-dimensional offense. arksansas had 28 rushing attempts as a team (including the 5 sacks). they average about 32 carries per game, so that's not too absurd. but it did seem like they abandoned the run early.
and now...
ALABAMA
Team Average: 219.83 yards per game Against LSU: 96
Richardson: 23 for 89
Lacy: 5 for 19
ok. no argument here. that was impressive. again, they sold out to stop the run because they didn't fear mccarron (who made some key mistakes but bama still threw for their average of 200 yards passing).
this was, in my book, the most impressive game LSU's defense played all year. the scary thing is that this was their biggest game and i think that bama has a better offensive line than we do. they don't have as much of a passing game though, so that could help us out a lot. most of the games tell us that our rushing defense is better than LSU's despite their national ranking being 4th and ours 6th. we were 2nd before we faced tech's gimmicky run-only offense and gave up 243 (well below their season average, though). we look better against pretty much all common competition. in some cases, we look much better. and often, LSU faced more fortuitous circumstances against those offenses. hopefully lsu can't sell out to stop our run as much as they did bama's and hopefully they're not up to playing another game at the level they played against bama.
otherwise, it looks like we probably have the better rushing defense.
OREGON
Team Average: 291 yards per game. Against LSU: 95 yards.
LaMichael James 18 carries for 54 yards and 1 TD
De'Anthony Thomas 4 carries for 22 yards and 1 TD.
Thomas is a freshman and was also stripped in the game. It was his first collegiate game. The QB and Kenjon Barner also ran a little, but nothing significant. James has put up insane numbers against some pretty poor competition. In fact, he is the leading rusher in the country (yards per game) and only averages about 19.7 carries per game. So, it is pretty impressive that LSU shut him down right?
Actually he has been slowed significantly several times this year. he's listed at 5'9" and 185 lbs. he's probably a little smaller than that. he's a good back but... he's had these kinds of games:
LSU 18 carries for 54 yards. 3 yards per carry. #4 Rush D
Nevada 12 carries for 67 yards. 5.6 yards per carry (inflated by a long of 22) #57 Rush D
Washington State 13 carries for 53 yards. 4.1 yards per carry (long of 16) #63 Rush D
USC 20 carries for 78 yards (3.9 yards per carry) #19 Rush D
His numbers are inflated by these kinds of games:
Missouri State 12 carries for 204 #107 Rush D in D-IAA TEAM: 416
Arizona 23 for 288 #66 rush D TEAM: 415
Califonia 30 for 239 #38 rush D TEAM: 365
Washington 25 for 156 #54 rush D TEAM: 212
Stanford 20 for 146 #5 rush D (his best game probably) TEAM: 232
Oregon State 24 for 142 #101 rush D TEAM: 365
bearing in mind that the rush D stats are inflated in the pac-12 because they are pass-oriented teams.
So, LSU shut oregon down, but it only means so much. James has very impressive numbers but only 1 100 yard game vs a decent opponent (Stanford). Also, at that point in the season Barner wasn't a factor. He became a big part of their offense as the year went on. Oregon has put up pretty crazy rushing numbers over the course of the year but only faced one decent rush defense and then put up some insane numbers on some bad rush defenses. I'll call that a good but maybe not amazing performance by the LSU rush D. They're good, but the Oregon game doesn't tell us everything.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Team Average: 168.83 rushing yards per game. Against LSU: 52 Against UGA: 56
Vick Ballard Against LSU: 10 for 38 Against UGA: 8 for 23
Chris Relf Against LSU: 16 for 10 Against UGA: 15 for 31
So, LSU did a better job stopping Relf running than we did, but overall it's kind of a wash.
WEST VIRGINIA
Team Average: 138.00 yards per game Against LSU: 70 yards
Garrison: 10 for 46
Roberts: 5 for 9
Alston: 4 for 14
With Holgerson at West Virginia, they are an Air Raid team. They threw it 65 times for 463 yards. WOW
They were held for about 70 yards below their rushing average, but threw for more than 110 yards than they average. The rush d may have dictated that to some degree, but still. A good performance, but not amazing. WVU only ran it 22 times but they usually carry it a little over 31 times a game. decent chance that they thought their best chance was through the air and went with that.
KENTUCKY
Team Average: 124.17 yards per game Against LSU: 89 yards Against UGA: 23 yards
Newton: Against LSU: 9 for 33 Against UGA: DNP
Clemons: Against LSU: 21 for 69 Against UGA: DNP
Sanders: Against LSU: DNP Against UGA: 7 for 45
Williams: : Against LSU: DNP Against UGA: 8 for 11
Looks like we did much better than LSU, but it's a little tricky. Neither of the leading rushers from one game played in the other. Pretty weird. All that I can say about that is that CoShik Williams is the leading rusher for them this season and UGA shut him down completely. Advantage UGA, but it's weird.
FLORIDA
Team Average : 144.00 yards per game Against LSU: 113 Against UGA: -19
Rainey: Against LSU: 13 for 52 Against UGA: 5 for 26
Gillislee: Against LSU: 9 for 56 Against UGA: DNP
Demps: Against LSU: 2 for 0 Against UGA: 8 for 12
We didn't see Gillislee. I'm not sure why. I know that he was forced into action against LSU and Bama because Demps was hurt and I think Rainey was a little gimpy. Either way, big advantage to UGA. Worth noting that Brantley did not play in the LSU game and even without the sack yardage, UGA did much better against Florida's rushing offense than LSU did. And that Florida's rushing offense was far more healthy for us than for LSU. Oh, and, of course, that no Brantley meant that LSU didn't have to worry about Florida's passing game and could sell out on the run. Didn't seem to matter much. They played well. We played a good bit better.
TENNESSEE
Team Average: 90.08 yards per game (ouch!) Against LSU: 111 Against UGA: -21!!!
Poole: Against LSU: 19 for 70 Against UGA: 7 for 7
Lane: Against LSU: 6 for 43 Against UGA: 7 for 11
once again... UT was without their starting QB. and in fact attempted twice as many passes against us. LSU could sell out to stop the run because sims couldn't beat them passing. they only threw it 20 times. yet, they still ran much better against LSU, even without sack yardage (though i'm not adjusting for that for either team). Big advantage UGA in this game.
AUBURN
Team Average: 174.75 yards per game. Against LSU: 87 yards Against UGA: 51 yards
Dyer: Against LSU: 12 for 60 Against UGA: 13 for 48
McCalebb: Against LSU: 3 for 32 Against UGA: 5 for 30
even more impressive is that LSU sacked moseley for -44 and we sacked him for -28. moseley was starting his first game against LSU. again, they could sell out to stop the run and they sacked the young QB several times. advantage UGA again
OLE MISS
Team Average: 129.58 yards per game Against LSU: 148 yards Against UGA: 34 yards
Davis: Against LSU: 11 for 41 Against UGA: DNP
Bolden: Against LSU: 13 for 58 Against UGA: 5 for 2
Brunetti: Against LSU: 15 for 74 Against UGA: DNP
Brassell: Against LSU: 1 for -11 Against UGA: 1 for 14
Scott: Against LSU: DNP Against UGA: 8 for 34
This game came late in the season for Ole Miss, so they were missing some guys, including a few that were suspended for the LSU game. Yet, they managed to rush for more than their average against the Tigers. That surprised me. Big advantage to UGA. We saw a more intact team and allowed fewer rushing yards.
ARKANSAS
Team Average: 138.08 yards per game Against LSU: 47 yards
Johnson: 10 for 31
Green: 5 for 23
Wingo: 4 for 16
Wilson was sacked like 5 times and that really hurt their numbers against LSU, but the tigers admirably held arkansas well below their average. No way to compare this to UGA since we didn't play Arkansas, but it's worth noting that Johnson has 1 100 yards game: 160 on ole miss. Wingo has 1. 109 against troy. green only played in about half of arkansas's games and has a season high of 47. this is a pass-first team and LSU feasted on their one-dimensional offense. arksansas had 28 rushing attempts as a team (including the 5 sacks). they average about 32 carries per game, so that's not too absurd. but it did seem like they abandoned the run early.
and now...
ALABAMA
Team Average: 219.83 yards per game Against LSU: 96
Richardson: 23 for 89
Lacy: 5 for 19
ok. no argument here. that was impressive. again, they sold out to stop the run because they didn't fear mccarron (who made some key mistakes but bama still threw for their average of 200 yards passing).
this was, in my book, the most impressive game LSU's defense played all year. the scary thing is that this was their biggest game and i think that bama has a better offensive line than we do. they don't have as much of a passing game though, so that could help us out a lot. most of the games tell us that our rushing defense is better than LSU's despite their national ranking being 4th and ours 6th. we were 2nd before we faced tech's gimmicky run-only offense and gave up 243 (well below their season average, though). we look better against pretty much all common competition. in some cases, we look much better. and often, LSU faced more fortuitous circumstances against those offenses. hopefully lsu can't sell out to stop our run as much as they did bama's and hopefully they're not up to playing another game at the level they played against bama.
otherwise, it looks like we probably have the better rushing defense.
Finally one to compare rushing offenses against our commont opponents this year. No one bothered to do any breakdowns on UGA passing game vs. LSU passing game because that is a no brainer, UGA has a FAR superior passing game to LSU-they can throw it if they need to but they much prefer to pound the ball and play D-and rightfully so. This post is also from UGAWildcat.
Hey guys, figured I'd go ahead and do another breakdown. This one is a little simpler and shorter because I got some homework to get to but it's still an interesting breakdown.
We got 6 common opponents. I'll cover season numbers, leading rushers and then those same kinds of break downs in each game. For my sake, I'll only do the top 2 or 3 rushers for each game. A quick note on the QB's rushing numbers: when I take out sacks, I can't easily find how many times they were sacked, so they don't lose those carries. If someone can find those numbers for Jefferson and Murray, I'm totally ok with them adjusting them. As is, assume that they're actually more effective as runners when sack yardage is taken out than it appears. Let's get to it.
First up:
Season averages for both teams.
LSU
#18 Rushing Offense. 218.83 yards per game. 529 carries for an impressive 4.9 yards per carry.
Leading Rushers:
Spencer Ware: 168 carries for 687 yards. 4.09 per carry. 8 TDs. he's only lost 20 yards all season. that's a testament to the offensive line.
Michael Ford: 117 for 721 yards. 6.16 per carry and 7 TDs.
Alfred Blue: 70 for 445 yards. 6.36 per carry and 6 TDs.
Kenny Hilliard: 49 for 248 yards. 5.06 per carry and 6 TDs.
Jordan Jefferson: 55 for 253 yards. 4.6 yards per carry and 3 TDs. he's only lost 38 yards on the year. he'd have 291 without the lost yards. brings him up to 5.30 yards per carry.
That's an impressive bunch.
UGA
#36 Rushing Offense. 180.58 yards per game. 509 carries at a 4.26 yards per carry clip.
Leading Rushers:
Isaiah Crowell: 172 carries for 832 yards and 5 TDs 4.84 yards per carry
Richard Samuel: 73 for 240 and 1 TD. 3.29 yards per carry
Carlton Thomas: 64 for 333 yards and 2 TDs. 5.2 yards per carry. (he's only lost 7 yards on the season!)
Aaron Murray: 71 for 121 (he's lost 167 yards on sacks... so, he'd have 288 without those) and 2 TDs. 1.70 yards per carry (4.06 without sacks)
Brandon Harton: 53 for 247 yards. 1 TD. 4.66 yards per carry
Ken Malcolme: 25 for 86 yards. 3.44 yards per carry.
KENTUCKY
LSU: 46 carries for 179 yards. 3.89 yards per carry.
Ware: 4 rushes for 5 yards.
Ford: 9 rushes for 22 yards.
Blue: 16 for 72 yards and a TD.
Hilliard: DNP
Jefferson: 4 rushes for 29 yards
UGA: 46 carries for 175 yards. 3.80 yards per carry
Crowell: 2 for 11 yards.
Samuel: DNP
Thomas: DNP
Murray: 8 for 11 yards.
Harton: 23 for 107 yards.
Malcolme: 9 for 37 yards.
Pretty much a wash and UGA was missing it's top 3 running backs (after crowell left the game injured).
Interesting stuff.
TENNESSEE
LSU: 49 carries for 237 yards. 4.84 yards per carry
Ware: 23 for 84 yards. 1 TD
Ford: 3 for 25 yards.
Blue: 4 for 17 yards.
Hilliard: 1 for 13 yards.
Jefferson: 14 for 73 yards. 1 TD
UGA: 38 for 139 yards. 3.66 yards per carry
Crowell: 19 for 58 and 2 TDs.
Samuel: 4 for 6.
Thomas: 7 for 37.
Murray: 6 for 19.
Harton: DNP
Advantage LSU in this game for sure. more than a yard per carry better than we were.
FLORIDA
LSU: 49 carries for 238 yards. 4.86 yards per carry.
Ware: 24 for 109 and 2 TDs
Ford: 1 for 2
Blue: 14 for 17 and 1 TD
Hilliard: 1 for 5
Jefferson: 4 for 7
UGA: 49 for 207 yards. 4.22 yards per carry.
Crowell: 18 for 81 yards.
Samuel: 17 for 58 and 1 TD.
Thomas: 4 for 2.
Murray: 9 for 42.
Harton: DNP
Pretty close here, but advantage LSU. Over half a yard better per rush.
OLE MISS
LSU: 50 for 353! 7.06 yards per carry. Very impressive
Ware: 10 for 70 and 1 TD
Ford: 5 for 50 and 1 TD
Blue: 4 for 74
Hilliard: 9 for 59 and 1 TD
Jefferson: 6 for 29
LSU absolutely dominated Ole Miss on the ground. Damn.
UGA: 56 carries for 207. 3.70 yards per carry. Ouch
Crowell: 30 for 147. Workhorse day for Crowell.
Samuel: 10 for 40
Thomas: 5 for 37
Murray: 11 for -17 (thanks oline!)
Harton: DNP
Big time advantage LSU here. Their rushing offense is impressive and tough and dominates games. That's one impressive line they got.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
LSU: 38 for 148 yards. 3.89 yards per carry
Ware: 22 for 107
Ford: 13 for 50
Blue: DNP
Hilliard: only played receiver.
Jefferson: DNP
hmmmmmmm. wonder why LSU had trouble in this game? it's because they couldn't run the ball as well as their other games. that seems to be the secret to beating them.
UGA: 49 for 155 yards 3.16 yards per carry.
Crowell: 22 for 104. he was our rushing offense.
Samuel: 9 for 28
Thomas: 8 for 35 and 1 TD
Murray: 5 for 5. he lost 15 thanks for sacks. thank god the oline got better as the year went on.
Harton: DNP
Apparently, MSU has a much better rushing defense than they get credit for. Advantage LSU again though... that's 1 draw and 4 for LSU. ouch.
AUBURN
LSU: 36 carries for 174 yards. 4.83 yards per carry.
Ware: DNP
Ford: 12 for 82.
Blue: 5 for 17.
Hilliard: 10 for 65.
Jefferson: 4 for 2.
UGA: 56 for 304. 5.43 yards per carry.
Crowell: 24 for 132 and a TD
Samuel: DNP
Thomas: 15 for 127
Murray: 9 for 21
Harton: 4 for 15
Malcolme: 3 for 10
Nice to see UGA finally have the advantage in 1. over half a yard better per carry.
I was susprised to see that Carlton has actually been our most effective runner. But still... the running game obviously depends heavily on Crowell. Thank God he'll be back this week.
LSU has to lean on their running game because their passing offense has been so bad. I can address that in a different post. But anyway, their backs and offensive line are so good that it really hasn't mattered. Teams know that LSU wants to run the ball, but that doesn't mean they can stop them down (or even slow them down that much).
Lucky for us these rush defenses rank like this:
Kentucky: #85
Auburn: #99
Florida: #40
Tennessee: #70
Mississippi State: #65
Ole Miss: #112
Yet we are #6. We're much better than any of those other defenses. In fact... Bama is the only defense that LSU has seen that's in our league on rushing D (they're #1, but you already knew that). Bama shut down LSU's running game and, by proxy, their entire offense. We really should be able to do the same. Hell, if Mississippi State can...
The next best rush D LSU saw was #40 Florida. After that... #45 Western Kentucky then #47 Oregon. Bama or bust for the tigers. We're an entirely different animal from what they've seen in every game outside of tuscaloosa.
The scary side of this is of course... that their rushing offense is much better than ours and performed worse against these questionable rushing defenses. And LSU is... #4. The next best rush D we saw was #25 Vandy. We rushed for 117 in that game well below our 180.58 average. We also saw #29 Boise State. They held us to 137 rushing. Still well under our average (though, our running game, when healthy, is much better than it was in that game). So, LSU is the best rush defense we've seen all year. It's going to be an incredible challenge to move the ball on the ground. But, hopefully, our balance on offense will make a big difference. We can throw the ball and they can't. In fact, they haven't placed a team that can do both all year. At least... not that can do both as well as we can. I think we'll have limited success running the ball until we get the pass working. I think that LSU will have trouble moving the ball on us at all. Especially on the ground.
We got 6 common opponents. I'll cover season numbers, leading rushers and then those same kinds of break downs in each game. For my sake, I'll only do the top 2 or 3 rushers for each game. A quick note on the QB's rushing numbers: when I take out sacks, I can't easily find how many times they were sacked, so they don't lose those carries. If someone can find those numbers for Jefferson and Murray, I'm totally ok with them adjusting them. As is, assume that they're actually more effective as runners when sack yardage is taken out than it appears. Let's get to it.
First up:
Season averages for both teams.
LSU
#18 Rushing Offense. 218.83 yards per game. 529 carries for an impressive 4.9 yards per carry.
Leading Rushers:
Spencer Ware: 168 carries for 687 yards. 4.09 per carry. 8 TDs. he's only lost 20 yards all season. that's a testament to the offensive line.
Michael Ford: 117 for 721 yards. 6.16 per carry and 7 TDs.
Alfred Blue: 70 for 445 yards. 6.36 per carry and 6 TDs.
Kenny Hilliard: 49 for 248 yards. 5.06 per carry and 6 TDs.
Jordan Jefferson: 55 for 253 yards. 4.6 yards per carry and 3 TDs. he's only lost 38 yards on the year. he'd have 291 without the lost yards. brings him up to 5.30 yards per carry.
That's an impressive bunch.
UGA
#36 Rushing Offense. 180.58 yards per game. 509 carries at a 4.26 yards per carry clip.
Leading Rushers:
Isaiah Crowell: 172 carries for 832 yards and 5 TDs 4.84 yards per carry
Richard Samuel: 73 for 240 and 1 TD. 3.29 yards per carry
Carlton Thomas: 64 for 333 yards and 2 TDs. 5.2 yards per carry. (he's only lost 7 yards on the season!)
Aaron Murray: 71 for 121 (he's lost 167 yards on sacks... so, he'd have 288 without those) and 2 TDs. 1.70 yards per carry (4.06 without sacks)
Brandon Harton: 53 for 247 yards. 1 TD. 4.66 yards per carry
Ken Malcolme: 25 for 86 yards. 3.44 yards per carry.
KENTUCKY
LSU: 46 carries for 179 yards. 3.89 yards per carry.
Ware: 4 rushes for 5 yards.
Ford: 9 rushes for 22 yards.
Blue: 16 for 72 yards and a TD.
Hilliard: DNP
Jefferson: 4 rushes for 29 yards
UGA: 46 carries for 175 yards. 3.80 yards per carry
Crowell: 2 for 11 yards.
Samuel: DNP
Thomas: DNP
Murray: 8 for 11 yards.
Harton: 23 for 107 yards.
Malcolme: 9 for 37 yards.
Pretty much a wash and UGA was missing it's top 3 running backs (after crowell left the game injured).
Interesting stuff.
TENNESSEE
LSU: 49 carries for 237 yards. 4.84 yards per carry
Ware: 23 for 84 yards. 1 TD
Ford: 3 for 25 yards.
Blue: 4 for 17 yards.
Hilliard: 1 for 13 yards.
Jefferson: 14 for 73 yards. 1 TD
UGA: 38 for 139 yards. 3.66 yards per carry
Crowell: 19 for 58 and 2 TDs.
Samuel: 4 for 6.
Thomas: 7 for 37.
Murray: 6 for 19.
Harton: DNP
Advantage LSU in this game for sure. more than a yard per carry better than we were.
FLORIDA
LSU: 49 carries for 238 yards. 4.86 yards per carry.
Ware: 24 for 109 and 2 TDs
Ford: 1 for 2
Blue: 14 for 17 and 1 TD
Hilliard: 1 for 5
Jefferson: 4 for 7
UGA: 49 for 207 yards. 4.22 yards per carry.
Crowell: 18 for 81 yards.
Samuel: 17 for 58 and 1 TD.
Thomas: 4 for 2.
Murray: 9 for 42.
Harton: DNP
Pretty close here, but advantage LSU. Over half a yard better per rush.
OLE MISS
LSU: 50 for 353! 7.06 yards per carry. Very impressive
Ware: 10 for 70 and 1 TD
Ford: 5 for 50 and 1 TD
Blue: 4 for 74
Hilliard: 9 for 59 and 1 TD
Jefferson: 6 for 29
LSU absolutely dominated Ole Miss on the ground. Damn.
UGA: 56 carries for 207. 3.70 yards per carry. Ouch
Crowell: 30 for 147. Workhorse day for Crowell.
Samuel: 10 for 40
Thomas: 5 for 37
Murray: 11 for -17 (thanks oline!)
Harton: DNP
Big time advantage LSU here. Their rushing offense is impressive and tough and dominates games. That's one impressive line they got.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
LSU: 38 for 148 yards. 3.89 yards per carry
Ware: 22 for 107
Ford: 13 for 50
Blue: DNP
Hilliard: only played receiver.
Jefferson: DNP
hmmmmmmm. wonder why LSU had trouble in this game? it's because they couldn't run the ball as well as their other games. that seems to be the secret to beating them.
UGA: 49 for 155 yards 3.16 yards per carry.
Crowell: 22 for 104. he was our rushing offense.
Samuel: 9 for 28
Thomas: 8 for 35 and 1 TD
Murray: 5 for 5. he lost 15 thanks for sacks. thank god the oline got better as the year went on.
Harton: DNP
Apparently, MSU has a much better rushing defense than they get credit for. Advantage LSU again though... that's 1 draw and 4 for LSU. ouch.
AUBURN
LSU: 36 carries for 174 yards. 4.83 yards per carry.
Ware: DNP
Ford: 12 for 82.
Blue: 5 for 17.
Hilliard: 10 for 65.
Jefferson: 4 for 2.
UGA: 56 for 304. 5.43 yards per carry.
Crowell: 24 for 132 and a TD
Samuel: DNP
Thomas: 15 for 127
Murray: 9 for 21
Harton: 4 for 15
Malcolme: 3 for 10
Nice to see UGA finally have the advantage in 1. over half a yard better per carry.
I was susprised to see that Carlton has actually been our most effective runner. But still... the running game obviously depends heavily on Crowell. Thank God he'll be back this week.
LSU has to lean on their running game because their passing offense has been so bad. I can address that in a different post. But anyway, their backs and offensive line are so good that it really hasn't mattered. Teams know that LSU wants to run the ball, but that doesn't mean they can stop them down (or even slow them down that much).
Lucky for us these rush defenses rank like this:
Kentucky: #85
Auburn: #99
Florida: #40
Tennessee: #70
Mississippi State: #65
Ole Miss: #112
Yet we are #6. We're much better than any of those other defenses. In fact... Bama is the only defense that LSU has seen that's in our league on rushing D (they're #1, but you already knew that). Bama shut down LSU's running game and, by proxy, their entire offense. We really should be able to do the same. Hell, if Mississippi State can...
The next best rush D LSU saw was #40 Florida. After that... #45 Western Kentucky then #47 Oregon. Bama or bust for the tigers. We're an entirely different animal from what they've seen in every game outside of tuscaloosa.
The scary side of this is of course... that their rushing offense is much better than ours and performed worse against these questionable rushing defenses. And LSU is... #4. The next best rush D we saw was #25 Vandy. We rushed for 117 in that game well below our 180.58 average. We also saw #29 Boise State. They held us to 137 rushing. Still well under our average (though, our running game, when healthy, is much better than it was in that game). So, LSU is the best rush defense we've seen all year. It's going to be an incredible challenge to move the ball on the ground. But, hopefully, our balance on offense will make a big difference. We can throw the ball and they can't. In fact, they haven't placed a team that can do both all year. At least... not that can do both as well as we can. I think we'll have limited success running the ball until we get the pass working. I think that LSU will have trouble moving the ball on us at all. Especially on the ground.
SO, if you have made it this far, let me just put down my keys to the game and final score prediction. For UGA it is simply this-
AVOID TURNOVERS-this is a must against a team that has a overall talent advantage-where LSU really has the talent advantage, depth on the LOS and running backs.
STOP THE RUN-no doubt LSU will try to run on us, although I think they will also try to catch us with some deep passes, figuring we will sell out on the run. They have two good WR's in Randle and Beckham but by and large, this team wants to run the ball, wear you out, play D and secure the win.
AVOID BIG RETURNS-the "Honey Badger" is an excellent return man for them-especially punt return and he can swing momentum of a game really quick-see Arkansas last week for a prime example. Butler and our kickoff guys need to boom kicks-punts so high they fair catch, kickoffs deep into the endzone.
BALANCE-everyone knows LSU has a great D but we offer more balance than most offenses they have faced this year. Arkansas also provided the balance, but otherwise, Oregon is a mostly run offense, WVA is mostly just an air attack, Bama a run team. HOPEFULLY Crowell will be back and he can give us just a little bit of a threat with the run-so that our play action game can truly function well.
PROTECT MURRAY-this probably is right up there with turnovers. Keeping Murray upright this week will be a challenge but our OL MUST protect him long enough for him to make his throws. Course Murray is going to take shots, I have no doubt he is tough enough to withstand some powerful hits. But our OL has to do a great shot to help him out and then I fully suspect Bobo will have him in the gun a lot and have him rolling a lot as well.
STAY CALM, STAY IN THE GAME-this is huge because LSU is used to jumping everyone early and then just taking care of business after that. If we fall behind, we have to remain calm and patient. We can't panick at all. LSU gets the big leads on folks and then their D has it easy-they have forced the hand of the offense. The longer we can stay in this game, the more threatened they will feel, and the more threatened they feel, the more prone they will be to make mistakes. This is a team that has only I believe SIX turnovers all year-but when you are in mostly blowout games, you are mostly just running the ball and playing conservative. Both Jefferson and Lee, the LSU QB's, have been known to throw costly INT's, so the longer we hang, the more likely they get nervous. It will also give our team a big boost-we are in this game, we can make plays to beat this team.
My heart and my head tell me different things here, my heart tells me UGA will win this game. My head tells me LSU has too much for us. Because I love UGA so much, I will pick the result based on my heart which tells me UGA 24 LSU 21. That being said, if I pick with my head I would probably take LSU but that is not to say I don't think we can realistically win this game-because I do. We are playing VERY good football-minus the UGLY UK peformance, down the stretch. LSU likely plays for a national title regardless of the outcome while we have a shot to get to the Sugar bowl with a win. I think incentive is there for both-but just how motivated will LSU be, knowing they can lose and still go?? UGA should not feel any pressure-they are expected to get beat my two touchdowns, they should be relaxed and just go out and play. I hope Bobo will be creative with his play calls, hope our D can smother the LSU run game and keep us in the game long enough to score some points. Even if we fall short, this season has been a success and next year figures to be a real shot to build off this turnaround season.
Hope everyone has a great weekend. GO DOGS!!
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